Steady unemployment rate may mean recession has bottomed out in Oregon

The bad news was the jobless rate is still hovering around 12 percent but the good news was that things have not gotten worse, economists said.

"We've more or less leveled off," said state employment economist Art Ayre, who presented the monthly figures for July at a news conference on Monday.

The 11.9 percent unemployment rate for Oregon in July was essentially unchanged from a revised figure of 12 percent for June - roughly the same rate the state has reported since March.

But even though the rate has hardly changed in the past five months, the state lost fewer jobs in July than in previous months.

Oregon lost 700 nonfarm payroll jobs in July after losing thousands of jobs each month in previous months.

Over the past three months, the state has lost an average of 1,900 jobs each month, compared to a decline of about 10,300 jobs each month over the previous nine months, economists said.

"On average it's a better report," said Tim Duy, a University of Oregon economist who compiles a monthly index of the state economy.

"What you're getting is a much smaller decline in unemployment in the past few months, and that's good because it suggests we're bottoming out," Duy said.

Still, the jobless rate and the number of unemployed workers in Oregon are nearly double what they were a year ago.

In July, 232,782 Oregonians were unemployed, compared with 120,582 for the same month a year ago, when the jobless rate was 6.3 percent.

Four major Oregon industries posted seasonally adjusted job losses in July, led by a loss of 3,100 manufacturing jobs and 2,500 construction jobs. Leisure and hospitality lost 1,300 and financial activities declined by 900.

Two of the major growth areas in the past few years - hospitals, trade, transportation and utilities sectors - have slowed their pace but still expanded in July.

The August issue of "Oregon Labor Trends," published by the Oregon Employment Department and edited by Ayre, noted the recession moved very quickly through the economy and produced a record number of mass layoffs in the state.

The monthly newsletter said more than 25,000 Oregonians lost jobs in mass layoffs over the six months that ended in March, before the jobless rate stabilized.

Gov. Ted Kulongoski said Monday the latest figures show it likely will be a slow recovery. But he said he would continue to use federal and state stimulus funding to create jobs while protecting unemployment benefits.

"While it is good news that the number of Oregonians out of work is not getting worse, the report serves as a reminder that the road to a full recovery is going to take time," Kulongoski said in a statement.

The national jobless rate also stayed about the same for July, 9.4 percent compared to 9.5 percent in June.

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