GOP struggles in Ore. to find statewide candidates

SALEM, Ore. (AP) - After four losses in races for statewide office in recent years, Republican activist Kevin Mannix isn't planning to run for anything in 2008.

"I'm on the sidelines for now," says the former GOP lawmaker and gubernatorial contender.

Mannix plans to be active politically promoting anti-crime ballot measures. But among potential GOP candidates, he has a lot of company on the sidelines.

Even though election year 2008 has nearly arrived, no Republicans have filed yet to run for any of the three statewide offices that will be up for grabs. Four Democrats already have filed for secretary of state, two for attorney general and one for state treasurer.

GOP officials insist they will field credible candidates in all three races by the March filing deadline. But it's getting late to launch a statewide campaign and the dearth of GOP contenders is seen by many as a sign that Republicans still haven't recovered from the shellacking they took - both in Oregon and nationally - in the 2006 elections.

In that election, Republicans suffered their sixth consecutive defeat in the Oregon governor's race, despite GOP contender Ron Saxton's big campaign fundraising advantage over Democratic incumbent Ted Kulongoski. And Republicans lost the Oregon House, putting Democrats in full control of the Legislature for the first time in 16 years.

"I think the party is still reeling from the 2006 losses," says former state Rep. Jeff Kropf. "Most people in our party just believe that it's an awfully steep hill to climb this electoral season. That's why you don't see a lot of enthusiasm out there."

Kropf has been mentioned by some as a potential secretary of state candidate, but the former lawmaker from Sublimity said he's been having "too much fun" as a conservative talk-radio host to even consider jumping into a political race.

Another Republican who's being recruited by the GOP to run for statewide office is Craig Campbell. He's a Salem lobbyist whose father, Larry Campbell, was once one of the state's most powerful political figures when he served as Oregon House speaker in the 1990s.

Craig Campbell is looking at the state treasurer's race, although he said he has some trepidations about putting his family - he has a wife and two young children - though a statewide campaign at a time when the odds seem to favor Democrats.

"There's no doubt that in the last election, the voting public was turning toward Democrats," Campbell said. "The next election will tell us if that was a trend or if the 2006 election was just a cleansing of the political palate."

Republicans' problems in Oregon and around the country didn't begin with the 2006 election, in which Democrats gained control of Congress - a development that was seen as part of a national backlash against President Bush and his Iraq war policies.

Portland pollster Tim Hibbitts notes that in Oregon, Democrats have won 19 of the past 22 statewide elections since 1994. And he said it appears Republicans are in for more difficult days in Oregon, where Republicans trail Democrats by about 3 percentage points in overall voter registration and where voter behavior has been trending bluer in recent elections.

"It's tough for Republicans to win in Oregon," Hibbitts said. "Things can change, but it doesn't look good for Republicans in 2008."

The one bright spot for the Oregon GOP in recent years has been U.S. Sen. Gordon Smith, the only Republican who holds statewide office in Oregon and the only GOP senator on the West Coast.

Smith has established a track record of running successfully as a Blue State Republican by reaching out to moderate voters, but he could face a stiff re-election challenge in 2008.

Democrats contend Smith has been politically reinventing himself in time for the election. They note that Smith voted to authorize the use of force in Iraq and supported President Bush's Iraq policy, then gave a well-publicized speech on the Senate floor a year ago opposing the war.

"Democrats consider him one of the most vulnerable Republicans in the country," said Marc Siegel, spokesman for the Oregon Democratic Party.

Siegel also said the Republicans are having a tough time finding candidates to run for other statewide offices because the GOP has been outflanked by Democrats who won control of the Legislature and had one of their most productive sessions ever earlier this year.

Legislators were able to provide big funding boosts for education while enacting major environmental, health care, equal rights and consumer protection laws - many of which had been bottled up for years by Republicans, Siegel said.

Tim Nashif, a conservative political consultant, agrees that times are tough for Republicans.

Nashif sees some cause for Republican hope in last month's special election, in which voters overwhelmingly rejected a hefty cigarette tax increase that the Democratic-controlled Legislature had placed on the ballot to pay for children's health care.

"If the Democrats continue to run to the left of the people, then the voters will change their minds" and start to gravitate back to more fiscally conservative Republican candidates, Nashif said. 

(Copyright 2007 by The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved.)