PORTLAND, Ore. - With just over six weeks to go until votes are counted in Oregon's May 20 primary, U.S. Senate Democratic hopeful Jeff Merkley appears to be trailing rival Steve Novick in the race to challenge Republican incumbent Gordon Smith next fall. 

A poll conducted Monday exclusively for KATU by SurveyUSA gave Novick a double-digit lead over Merkley, with 23 percent of the 597 likely voters surveyed saying they planned to vote for him. Merkley came in third in the automated poll, with 11 percent of voters, a statistical tie with Eugene anti-war activist Candy Neville, who was supported by 12 percent of voters in the poll.

Forty percent of voters in the poll, which had a margin of error of 4.1 percent, said they were still undecided.

"It's a very good day," Novick said in reacting to the poll. "And it's consistent with all the other polls we've seen."

Once viewed as the political underdog, Novick now appears to be taking the race by storm.

 "We think the people are looking for something a little different," he said. "And I'm little, and I'm different."

Merkley's staff disputed the poll results, saying there is no way Novick has a double-digit lead over Merkley.

"I think there's a serious question about the legitimacy of that poll," said Merkley communications director Matt Canter.

University of Portland political science Professor Gary Malecha sees the poll as significant in its uncertainty since it shows 40 percent of Democratic voters undecided.

"There is a lot of volatility out there," he said.

He cautions anyone who is calling this race too soon.

"We have to be very careful about drawing any kinds of judgments with regard to what's going to happen," Malecha said.

He added that many Democrats are likely undecided in the race because they have been concentrating on presidential politics.

In his effort to raise his still-scanty name recognition among voters, Merkley, the speaker of the Oregon House of Representatives, launched the first major TV ad buy of the campaign. The ad is set to begin airing Tuesday on television stations in Portland and Eugene.

In the 30-second ad, a narrator hits some of the high points of Merkley's legislative career, including his efforts to install a Democratic majority in the Oregon House after 16 years of Republican control, laws against predatory payday loan operations and legislation promoting renewable energy.

The ad says Merkley "opposed the war in Iraq from the very beginning" - a claim challenged by Novick and by the GOP. They've noted Merkley's vote in 2003 for an Oregon House resolution that praised the troops and recognized "the courage of President George W. Bush."

In response, Merkley has said that he wanted to support Oregon's military and that he accompanied his vote with a floor speech noting that he was not persuaded that the war was "the best strategy to fight terrorism."

Canter, of the Merkley campaign, said the ad was designed to underscore Merkley's "passion for making change," a theme that's been successfully pressed by Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, whose presidential bid Merkley endorsed.

The ad buy will likely be the first of many, as both candidates try to raise their profiles, of particular import this year since voter turnout is expected to be high due to the interest in the contest between Hillary Clinton and Obama.

Novick campaign manager Jake Weigler said their campaign would soon be airing ads more widely. He called Merkley's ad a "typical" introductory effort, and said the Novick campaign would "continue to offer ads that don't fit the conventional model, but at the same time will make a substantive case for what Steve wants to do in the Senate."

The Novick campaign paid for brief runs of two of its YouTube ads on television statewide earlier this year.

(Copyright 2008 by The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved.)