Experts predict massive cocoa shortage
PORTLAND, Ore. – Industry experts say the world could run out of affordable chocolate in the next 20 years.
That's because farmers in cocoa-rich West Africa are leaving the business over low pay, according to news reports. The Ivory Coast in West Africa alone produces roughly 40 percent of the world’s supply of cacao. Two thirds of this cacao is grown on sun plantations without tropical tree cover. The lack of tree cover necessitates increasing amounts of pesticides, another risk for the cocoa farmer.
The Nature Conservation Research Council reports that cocoa represents a considerable share of the agriculture of most tropical countries. However, the cocoa seeds – also produced on the Central and South America equator in countries such as Mexico – can take up to five laborious years to cultivate.
So, without stepped-up cocoa production elsewhere, experts say prices are sure to rise.
To be sure, The Hershey Co. reports that in 1908 its 9/16-ounce bar of chocolate sold for 2 cents. By 1986 the price for a 1.65-ounce Hershey bar had climbed to 40 cents. In 2010, the same bars can be found at convenience stores and even supermarkets for around $1 (Source: The Hershey Bar Index).
However, the newest prediction – from John Mason at the Ghana-based Nature Conservation Research Council – is that chocolate soon could become as rare and expensive as caviar.
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