Poll: Ore. tax measures appear to have momentum to pass

PORTLAND, Ore. (AP) - Days before a special election, a new poll indicates Oregon voters may support two tax measures that would boost rates for wealthy Oregonians and corporations.

The Jan. 26 mail referendum asks voters whether a $727 million tax package approved by the 2009 Oregon Legislature should take effect.

Measure 66 increases taxes for households with taxable incomes higher than $250,000, and singles with taxable incomes higher than $125,000. Measure 67 increases corporate taxes in a variety of ways.

The poll released late Tuesday shows 52 percent of respondents said they would vote for Measure 66 while 39 percent said they'd vote against it. On Measure 67, 50 percent of respondents said they'll vote for it while 40 percent said they'll vote against it.

The telephone poll of 500 likely voters was conducted Jan. 14-15 by Davis, Hibbitts and Midghall Inc. on behalf of Oregon Public Broadcasting, Fox 12 TV and the Portland Tribune. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

Pollster Tim Hibbitts says assessing the likely outcome is complicated when the issue is tax measures rather than political candidates.

"A lot of times with tax issues, they can poll at 52 or 53, two weeks out from the election," he said. "And you get this almost invisible suction that will occur in them and they will wind up losing by three or four points instead of winning."

When pressed, Hibbitts predicts success for both measures. However, he says the margins are so tight he wouldn't be surprised if they failed - or if one passed and the other didn't.

In approving the tax hikes, the Democratic-led Legislature said the taxes were needed to balance the budget and to protect schools and safety net programs from budget cuts. They also said the higher taxes are aimed at those who can afford to pay them.