Swine flu virus starting to look less threatening
The swine flu outbreak that has alarmed the world for a week now
appears less ominous, with the virus showing little staying power
in the hardest-hit cities and scientists suggesting it lacks the
genetic fortitude of past killer bugs.
President Barack Obama even voiced hope Friday that it may turn
out to be no more harmful than the average seasonal flu.
In New York City, which has the most confirmed swine flu cases
in the U.S. with 49, swine flu has not spread far beyond cases
linked to one Catholic school. In Mexico, the epicenter of the
outbreak, very few relatives of flu victims seem to have caught it.
A flu expert said he sees no reason to believe the virus is
particularly lethal. And a federal scientist said the germ's
genetic makeup lacks some traits seen in the deadly 1918 flu
pandemic strain and the more recent killer bird flu.
Still, it was too soon to be certain what the swine flu virus
will do. Experts say the only wise course is to prepare for the
worst. But in a world that's been rattled by the specter of a
global pandemic, glimmers of hope were more than welcome Friday.
"It may turn out that H1N1 runs its course like ordinary flus,
in which case we will have prepared and we won't need all these
preparations," Obama said, using the flu's scientific name.
The president stressed the government was still taking the virus
very seriously, adding that even if this round turns out to be
mild, the bug could return in a deadlier form during the next flu
season.
New York officials said after a week of monitoring the disease
that the city's outbreak gives little sign of spreading beyond a
few pockets or getting more dangerous.
All but two of the city's confirmed cases so far involve people
associated with the high school where the local outbreak began and
where several students had recently returned from Mexico.
More than 1,000 students, parents and faculty there reported flu
symptoms over just a few days last month. But since then, only a
handful of new infections have been reported - only eight students
since last Sunday.
Almost everyone who became ill before then are either recovering
or already well. The school, which was closed this past week, is
scheduled to reopen Monday. No new confirmed cases were identified
in the city on Friday, and Mayor Michael Bloomberg said the
outbreak in New York had so far proved to be "a relatively minor
annoyance."
In Mexico, where swine flu has killed at least 16 people and the
confirmed case count has surpassed 300, the health secretary said
few of the relatives of 86 suspected swine flu patients had caught
the virus. Only four of the 219 relatives surveyed turned up as
probable cases.
As recently as Wednesday, Mexican authorities said there were
168 suspected swine flu deaths in the country and almost 2,500
suspected cases. The officials have stopped updating that number
and say those totals may have even been inflated.
Mexico shut down all but essential government services and
private businesses Friday, the start of a five-day shutdown that
includes a holiday weekend. Authorities there will use the break to
determine whether emergency measures can be eased.
In the Mexican capital, there were no reports of deaths
overnight - the first time that has happened since the emergency
was declared a week ago, said Mayor Marcelo Ebrard.
"This isn't to say we are lowering our guard or we think we no
longer have problems," Ebrard said. "But we're moving in the
right direction."
The U.S. case count rose to 155 on Friday, based on federal and
state counts, although state laboratory operators believe the
number is higher because they are not testing all suspected cases.
Worldwide, the total confirmed cases neared 600, although that
number is also believed to be much larger. Besides the U.S. and
Mexico, the virus has been detected in Canada, New Zealand, China,
Israel and eight European nations.
There were still plenty of signs Friday of worldwide concern.
China decided to suspend flights from Mexico to Shanghai because
of a case of swine flu confirmed in a flight from Mexico, China's
state-run Xinhua News Agency reported.
And in Hong Kong, hundreds of hotel guests and workers were
quarantined after a tourist from Mexico tested positive for swine
flu, Asia's first confirmed case.
Evoking the 2003 SARS outbreak, workers in protective suits and
masks wiped down tables, floors and windows. Guests at the hotel
waved to photographers from their windows.
Scientists looking closely at the H1N1 virus itself have found
some encouraging news, said Nancy Cox, flu chief at the federal
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Its genetic makeup
doesn't show specific traits that showed up in the 1918 pandemic
virus, which killed about 40 million to 50 million people
worldwide.
"However, we know that there is a great deal that we do not
understand about the virulence of the 1918 virus or other influenza
viruses" that caused serious illnesses, Cox said. "So we are
continuing to learn."
She told The Associated Press that the swine flu virus also
lacked genetic traits associated with the virulence of the bird flu
virus, which grabbed headlines a few years ago and has killed 250
people, mostly in Asia.
Researchers will get a better idea of how dangerous this virus
is over the next week to 10 days, said Peter Palese, a leading flu
researcher with Mount Sinai Medical School in New York.
So far in the United States, he said, the virus appears to look
and behave like the garden-variety flus that strike every winter.
"There is no real reason to believe this is a more serious
strain," he said.
Palese said many adults probably have immune systems primed to
handle the virus because it is so similar to another common flu
strain.
As for why the illness has predominantly affected children and
teenagers in New York, Palese said older people probably have more
antibodies from exposure to similar types of flu that help them
fight off infection.
"The virus is so close," he said.
In the United States, most of the people with swine flu have
been treated at home. Only nine people are known to have ended up
in the hospital, though officials suspect there are more.
In Mexico, officials have voiced optimism for two days that the
worst may be over. But Dr. Scott F. Dowell of the CDC said it's
hard to know whether the outbreak is easing up in Mexico. "They're
still seeing plenty of cases," Dowell said.
He said outbreaks in any given area might be relatively brief,
so that they may seem to be ending in some areas that had a lot of
illness a few weeks ago. But cases are occurring elsewhere, and
national numbers in Mexico are not abating, he said.
A top Mexican medical officer questioned the World Health
Organization's handling of the early signs of the swine flu scare,
suggesting Thursday that a regional arm of the WHO had taken too
long to notify WHO headquarters of about a unusually late rash of
flu cases in Mexico.
The regional agency, however, provided a timeline to the AP
suggesting it was Mexico that failed to respond to its request to
alert other nations to the first hints of the outbreak.
The Mexican official, chief epidemiologist Dr. Miguel Angel
Lezana, backtracked Friday, telling Radio Formula: "There was no
delay by the Mexican authorities, nor was there any by the World
Health Organization."
In the U.S., Obama said efforts were focused on identifying
people who have the flu, getting medical help to the right places
and providing clear advice to state and local officials and the
public.
The president also said the U.S. government is working to
produce a vaccine down the road, developing clear guidelines for
school closings and trying to ensure businesses cooperate with
workers who run out of sick leave.
He pointed out that regular seasonal flus kill about 36,000
people in the United States in an average year and send 200,000 to
the hospital.
---
Associated Press writers Malcolm Ritter in New York, Lauran
Neergaard in Washington, and Paul Haven, E. Eduardo Castillo,
Andrew O. Selsky and Istra Pacheco in Mexico City contributed to
this report.
appears less ominous, with the virus showing little staying power
in the hardest-hit cities and scientists suggesting it lacks the
genetic fortitude of past killer bugs.
President Barack Obama even voiced hope Friday that it may turn
out to be no more harmful than the average seasonal flu.
In New York City, which has the most confirmed swine flu cases
in the U.S. with 49, swine flu has not spread far beyond cases
linked to one Catholic school. In Mexico, the epicenter of the
outbreak, very few relatives of flu victims seem to have caught it.
A flu expert said he sees no reason to believe the virus is
particularly lethal. And a federal scientist said the germ's
genetic makeup lacks some traits seen in the deadly 1918 flu
pandemic strain and the more recent killer bird flu.
Still, it was too soon to be certain what the swine flu virus
will do. Experts say the only wise course is to prepare for the
worst. But in a world that's been rattled by the specter of a
global pandemic, glimmers of hope were more than welcome Friday.
"It may turn out that H1N1 runs its course like ordinary flus,
in which case we will have prepared and we won't need all these
preparations," Obama said, using the flu's scientific name.
The president stressed the government was still taking the virus
very seriously, adding that even if this round turns out to be
mild, the bug could return in a deadlier form during the next flu
season.
New York officials said after a week of monitoring the disease
that the city's outbreak gives little sign of spreading beyond a
few pockets or getting more dangerous.
All but two of the city's confirmed cases so far involve people
associated with the high school where the local outbreak began and
where several students had recently returned from Mexico.
More than 1,000 students, parents and faculty there reported flu
symptoms over just a few days last month. But since then, only a
handful of new infections have been reported - only eight students
since last Sunday.
Almost everyone who became ill before then are either recovering
or already well. The school, which was closed this past week, is
scheduled to reopen Monday. No new confirmed cases were identified
in the city on Friday, and Mayor Michael Bloomberg said the
outbreak in New York had so far proved to be "a relatively minor
annoyance."
In Mexico, where swine flu has killed at least 16 people and the
confirmed case count has surpassed 300, the health secretary said
few of the relatives of 86 suspected swine flu patients had caught
the virus. Only four of the 219 relatives surveyed turned up as
probable cases.
As recently as Wednesday, Mexican authorities said there were
168 suspected swine flu deaths in the country and almost 2,500
suspected cases. The officials have stopped updating that number
and say those totals may have even been inflated.
Mexico shut down all but essential government services and
private businesses Friday, the start of a five-day shutdown that
includes a holiday weekend. Authorities there will use the break to
determine whether emergency measures can be eased.
In the Mexican capital, there were no reports of deaths
overnight - the first time that has happened since the emergency
was declared a week ago, said Mayor Marcelo Ebrard.
"This isn't to say we are lowering our guard or we think we no
longer have problems," Ebrard said. "But we're moving in the
right direction."
The U.S. case count rose to 155 on Friday, based on federal and
state counts, although state laboratory operators believe the
number is higher because they are not testing all suspected cases.
Worldwide, the total confirmed cases neared 600, although that
number is also believed to be much larger. Besides the U.S. and
Mexico, the virus has been detected in Canada, New Zealand, China,
Israel and eight European nations.
There were still plenty of signs Friday of worldwide concern.
China decided to suspend flights from Mexico to Shanghai because
of a case of swine flu confirmed in a flight from Mexico, China's
state-run Xinhua News Agency reported.
And in Hong Kong, hundreds of hotel guests and workers were
quarantined after a tourist from Mexico tested positive for swine
flu, Asia's first confirmed case.
Evoking the 2003 SARS outbreak, workers in protective suits and
masks wiped down tables, floors and windows. Guests at the hotel
waved to photographers from their windows.
Scientists looking closely at the H1N1 virus itself have found
some encouraging news, said Nancy Cox, flu chief at the federal
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Its genetic makeup
doesn't show specific traits that showed up in the 1918 pandemic
virus, which killed about 40 million to 50 million people
worldwide.
"However, we know that there is a great deal that we do not
understand about the virulence of the 1918 virus or other influenza
viruses" that caused serious illnesses, Cox said. "So we are
continuing to learn."
She told The Associated Press that the swine flu virus also
lacked genetic traits associated with the virulence of the bird flu
virus, which grabbed headlines a few years ago and has killed 250
people, mostly in Asia.
Researchers will get a better idea of how dangerous this virus
is over the next week to 10 days, said Peter Palese, a leading flu
researcher with Mount Sinai Medical School in New York.
So far in the United States, he said, the virus appears to look
and behave like the garden-variety flus that strike every winter.
"There is no real reason to believe this is a more serious
strain," he said.
Palese said many adults probably have immune systems primed to
handle the virus because it is so similar to another common flu
strain.
As for why the illness has predominantly affected children and
teenagers in New York, Palese said older people probably have more
antibodies from exposure to similar types of flu that help them
fight off infection.
"The virus is so close," he said.
In the United States, most of the people with swine flu have
been treated at home. Only nine people are known to have ended up
in the hospital, though officials suspect there are more.
In Mexico, officials have voiced optimism for two days that the
worst may be over. But Dr. Scott F. Dowell of the CDC said it's
hard to know whether the outbreak is easing up in Mexico. "They're
still seeing plenty of cases," Dowell said.
He said outbreaks in any given area might be relatively brief,
so that they may seem to be ending in some areas that had a lot of
illness a few weeks ago. But cases are occurring elsewhere, and
national numbers in Mexico are not abating, he said.
A top Mexican medical officer questioned the World Health
Organization's handling of the early signs of the swine flu scare,
suggesting Thursday that a regional arm of the WHO had taken too
long to notify WHO headquarters of about a unusually late rash of
flu cases in Mexico.
The regional agency, however, provided a timeline to the AP
suggesting it was Mexico that failed to respond to its request to
alert other nations to the first hints of the outbreak.
The Mexican official, chief epidemiologist Dr. Miguel Angel
Lezana, backtracked Friday, telling Radio Formula: "There was no
delay by the Mexican authorities, nor was there any by the World
Health Organization."
In the U.S., Obama said efforts were focused on identifying
people who have the flu, getting medical help to the right places
and providing clear advice to state and local officials and the
public.
The president also said the U.S. government is working to
produce a vaccine down the road, developing clear guidelines for
school closings and trying to ensure businesses cooperate with
workers who run out of sick leave.
He pointed out that regular seasonal flus kill about 36,000
people in the United States in an average year and send 200,000 to
the hospital.
---
Associated Press writers Malcolm Ritter in New York, Lauran
Neergaard in Washington, and Paul Haven, E. Eduardo Castillo,
Andrew O. Selsky and Istra Pacheco in Mexico City contributed to
this report.