Rod Hill's winter weather outlook

PORTLAND, Ore. - For the past several weeks, newscasters and meteorologists have been talking about this winter being another La Nina season and new data shows that will be the case.

What does that mean for us?

Heavy rains is what many people think about when they hear La Nina. In fact, 67 percent of La Nina years have indeed been wet. In severe cases, the average has been six inches above normal.

As for the timing of the rain - January and February seem to be the bullseye for above-average rain. A perfect example is February of 1996, a month when Portland saw more than 10 inches of rain, which was more than 200 percent of average.

We are due for a wet winter. The last soaker, defined as 40 inches or more of precipitation, was eight years ago. Our current streak of eight years is the second longest on record.

However, while 67 percent of La Nina years have been wet, 33 percent have been very dry, with an average of seven inches below the norm. Our lowest water year happened during the rain season of 2000-2001, when we received just 23 inches of rain.

What about snow?

During La Nina years since 1950, the average snowfall has been 5.8 inches, which is about average.

However, climate change has altered our snowfall.

We began seeing less snow in the 1970s. If you just take snow data since 1970, the average snowfall drops to 2.53 inches, meaning we are less likely to see snow in the valley during La Nina years.

What is the most likely forecast?

• Wetter than average, with the wettest months being January and February.
• Not much snow.
• *The wild card - Remember, 33 percent of the time a La Nina produces a very dry winter, so that is still a possibility.